Market Analysis — Meta-Structure Framework
A reusable scaffold for mapping any market. Input: “Map the market for [X].”
Phase 1: Define the Boundaries
- Core definition: what’s included/excluded?
- Adjacent spaces: what are you not mapping but should acknowledge?
- Time horizon: current state, 5-year, 10-year?
Phase 2: Segmentation (choose 2–3)
Supply-side: by technology/production pathway, feedstock/input type, value chain position (developer vs producer vs integrator)
Demand-side: by end-use sector, customer type, job-to-be-done, geography/regulatory regime
Maturity: by TRL/commercialization stage, cost competitiveness, market adoption (pilots vs early commercial vs scaling)
Phase 3: Core Analysis Modules
Module 1 — Technology/Product Landscape: variants within the space, performance comparison matrix, technical maturity and bottlenecks, differentiation factors
Module 2 — Economics & Business Models: cost structures (capex/opex), revenue models, unit economics, margin distribution across value chain, sensitivity analysis
Module 3 — Competitive Landscape: player mapping, strategic positioning (incumbents vs startups, horizontal vs vertical), funding landscape, partnership/M&A activity
Module 4 — Market Drivers & Barriers: demand drivers, regulatory tailwinds/headwinds, infrastructure constraints, supply chain dependencies, adoption catalysts
Module 5 — Market Sizing: TAM/SAM/SOM by segment, growth trajectories and inflection points, scenario analysis (bull/base/bear)
Module 6 — Climate/Impact Dimension (when relevant): emissions reduction potential, lifecycle analysis, additionality and integrity concerns, co-benefits and trade-offs
Phase 4: Synthesis
Produce: executive summary (3–5 key insights), investment thesis or strategic recommendation, risks and open questions, data gaps flagged explicitly.
See also: carbon-markets-curriculum | 4B-mental-models